Predicting inaccuracy in economic forecasts

 

sunkenkirk

Government and business planners need accurate economic forecasts to make optimal decisions.  Investors too need accurate economic forecasts as part of evaluating future company profits.

There are times when economic forecasts are quite accurate: this is usually when there is little variation from recent trends.  There are also times when accuracy is very poor.

It would be valuable to be able to predict when economic forecasts can be relied upon and when they are likely to be inaccurate.  This is important for risk management and appears to be possible, at least in Australia.  There are circumstances when official forecasts are likely to be most inaccurate.

I have identified the conditions under which GDP forecasting inaccuracy is greatest.  My report is available at foreseechange.com.au.

Charlie Nelson

 


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