The great Australian car crash of 2018

Peak car or perfect storm?

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Since 1998 (when I was working at Nielsen) I have been forecasting new vehicle sales with a high degree of accuracy.  In 1998, I predicted sales of 770,000 to 820,000 when the industry was forecasting 720,000.  The outcome was 808,000.  This was reported in BRW on 26 January 1998.

Our models have been continuously improved but there are occasional surprises.  2018 was such a year.

I have now analysed sales and the causal factors for 2018 and identified a pair of factors which have had a larger negative impact than in the past.

Several other factors were influential to a lesser degree, but it was a perfect storm.  One factor may have a greater impact in 2019.

My report is available at foreseechange.com.au.

Charlie Nelson

 

Australia’s 2019 federal election: the likely outcome and top issues


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The Coalition is very likely to lose the 2019 federal election, which will probably be held in May.  Three separate predictive methods all show a Labor win.  Is this a repeat of 2007 when Labor won despite a strong economy?  Will climate change be the deciding factor?

It is not a repeat of 2007 because the economy now is much weaker than then.  But climate change does seem poised to be a very influential factor because the level of voter belief in climate change has now recovered to the same level as in 2007, across all age groups.

A detailed analysis is contained in my report, along with an assessment of the top 10 issues that will be in the minds of voters.

Charlie Nelson