Australia’s 2019 federal election: the likely outcome and top issues


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The Coalition is very likely to lose the 2019 federal election, which will probably be held in May.  Three separate predictive methods all show a Labor win.  Is this a repeat of 2007 when Labor won despite a strong economy?  Will climate change be the deciding factor?

It is not a repeat of 2007 because the economy now is much weaker than then.  But climate change does seem poised to be a very influential factor because the level of voter belief in climate change has now recovered to the same level as in 2007, across all age groups.

A detailed analysis is contained in my report, along with an assessment of the top 10 issues that will be in the minds of voters.

Charlie Nelson