Predictions of the outcome of the 2019 federal election were inaccurate. Both polls of voting intentions and betting markets failed to predict a Coalition victory.
I have explored whether the Wisdom of the Masses, the general public’s expectations about the future on several issues, can explain the election outcomes between 2007 and 2019. Elections are intrinsically about the future.
My findings are positive and this provides a new basis for predicting Australian federal election outcomes.
Expectations about three issues have explained the outcomes of the past five elections: belief in imminent climate change; fear of terrorism; and economic pessimism. Expectations about each of these three issues have varied considerably over this period. The findings provide insights relevant to the focus of election strategies of political parties.
My report is available at foreseechange.com.au.